Socioeconomic factors influencing housing acquisition in the city of Machala, Ecuador, 2025

Abstract

This study examines the impact of socioeconomic factors on the probability of acquiring housing in Machala during 2025 by integrating a literature review, descriptive analysis in Power BI, and inferential tests in SPSS. A total of 1 919 residents were surveyed and classified by employment status: 52.3 % salaried employees, 22.5 % self-employed, 19.3 % informal workers, and 5.9 % holding multiple jobs. Based on the literature, the critical variables were defined as income, debt, liquidity, payment capacity, and borrowing capacity. The descriptive analysis revealed an average income of USD 1 095.50—substantially above the official median wage (USD 452.50)—and a wage coverage of 59 % of the basic family basket. Mean debt stood at USD 320.60 (SD = 595.80), highlighting heterogeneity and pressure on purchasing power. Binary logistic regression confirmed the general hypothesis (H₀): the combined model (income, debt, liquidity, borrowing capacity, and credit approval) significantly explains the probability of housing purchase (χ²(model) = 243.1; p < .001; Nagelkerke R² = 0.18). Hypotheses H₁ and H₂ were validated, showing that each additional USD 100 in income increases the odds of acquisition by 15 % (Exp(B) = 1.15; p < .001), while each extra USD 100 of debt reduces them by 15 % (Exp(B) = 0.85; p < .001). Additionally, the chi-square test confirmed H₃: salaried employment is positively associated with purchase (χ²(819) = 2301.01; p < .001). These findings indicate that higher real incomes, lower indebtedness, and formal employment facilitate housing access. Accordingly, we recommend public policies that strengthen purchasing power, regulate consumer credit, and promote labor formalization to guarantee decent housing in Machala.