Del estudio de mercado a la estimación de la demanda: procedimiento para el dimensionamiento del mercado en planes de negocio

Rubén Neptalí  Ávila Peralta; Wendy Diana Carranza Quimi

doi:10.63549/rg.v6i2.848

Rubén Neptalí Ávila Peralta Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo, Equador
Wendy Diana Carranza Quimi Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo, Equador

DOI: https://doi.org/10.63549/rg.v6i2.848

Keywords: market research; demand estimation; market sizing; operating capacity; business plan

Abstract

Market research provides information on consumer characteristics, preferences, and purchase intentions, but these results do not by themselves constitute estimates of demand, sales, or revenue. This study aimed to explain, through an applied case, the calculation process used to transform market research results into estimates of customers, service demand, market size, capturable demand, operating capacity, expected sales, and revenue for a business plan. An applied, quantitative, descriptive, non-experimental, cross-sectional study was conducted using a home-based ecological vehicle-washing service in Quevedo, Ecuador, as the case. The reference population comprised 130,248 urban residents aged 20 years or older, and 384 observations were analyzed using non-probability convenience sampling and digital self-selection. The results yielded an estimate of 91,568 potential customers, an expected frequency of 1.5781 services per customer per month, and estimated demand of 144,500 services per month. Maximum operating capacity, adjusted for the service mix, was 938 services per month; therefore, capacity rather than market size was the main constraint on sales. Capacity-utilization scenarios showed that market capture should be linked to effective operating capacity rather than directly to stated purchase intention. The case demonstrates that maintaining traceability among observed data, assumptions, units, time periods, and operating constraints produces commercially and technically coherent estimates without assigning universal validity to the procedure.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Rubén Neptalí Ávila Peralta , Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo, Equador

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1885-4085

rubennper.avila@uteq.edu.ec

Wendy Diana Carranza Quimi , Universidad Técnica Estatal de Quevedo, Equador

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4320-7354

wcarranza@uteq.edu.ec

References

Adcock, R., & Collier, D. (2001). Measurement validity: A shared standard for qualitative and quantitative research. American Political Science Review, 95(3), 529–546. doi:10.1017/S0003055401003100.
Baker, R., Brick, J. M., Bates, N. A., Battaglia, M., Couper, M. P., Dever, J. A., Gile, K. J., & Tourangeau, R. (2013). Summary report of the AAPOR Task Force on non-probability sampling. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, 1(2), 90–143. doi:10.1093/jssam/smt008.
Bethlehem, J. (2010). Selection bias in web surveys. International Statistical Review, 78(2), 161–188. doi:10.1111/j.1751-5823.2010.00112.x.
Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user’s guide. Futures, 38(7), 723–739. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002.
Brinckmann, J., Grichnik, D., & Kapsa, D. (2010). Should entrepreneurs plan or just storm the castle? A meta-analysis on contextual factors impacting the business planning–performance relationship in small firms. Journal of Business Venturing, 25(1), 24–40. doi:10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.10.007.
Cachon, G., & Terwiesch, C. (2023). Matching supply with demand: An introduction to operations management (5th ed.). McGraw Hill.
Carpenter, A., & Wilson, R. (2022). A systematic review looking at the effect of entrepreneurship education on higher education student. The International Journal of Management Education, 20(2), 100541. doi:10.1016/j.ijme.2021.100541.
Churchill, G. A., Jr. (1979). A paradigm for developing better measures of marketing constructs. Journal of Marketing Research, 16(1), 64–73. doi:10.1177/002224377901600110.
Constantinides, E. (2006). The marketing mix revisited: Towards the 21st century marketing. Journal of Marketing Management, 22(3–4), 407–438. doi:10.1362/026725706776861190.
Cordova-Pozo, K., & Rouwette, E. A. J. A. (2023). Types of scenario planning and their effectiveness: A review of reviews. Futures, 149, 103153. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2023.103153.
Crandall, R. E., & Markland, R. E. (1996). Demand management—Today’s challenge for service industries. Production and Operations Management, 5(2), 106–120. doi:10.1111/j.1937-5956.1996.tb00389.x.
ElHaffar, G., Durif, F., & Dubé, L. (2020). Towards closing the attitude-intention-behavior gap in green consumption: A narrative review of the literature and an overview of future research directions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 275, 122556. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122556.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. (2024). Estimaciones y proyecciones de la población de Ecuador, revisión 2024. INEC.
Kahn, K. B. (2014). Solving the problems of new product forecasting. Business Horizons, 57(5), 607–615. doi:10.1016/j.bushor.2014.05.003.
Kotler, P., Keller, K. L., & Chernev, A. (2022). Marketing management (16th ed.). Pearson.
Malhotra, N. K. (2020). Marketing research: An applied orientation (7th global ed.). Pearson.
Miller, K. M., Hofstetter, R., Krohmer, H., & Zhang, Z. J. (2011). How should consumers’ willingness to pay be measured? An empirical comparison of state-of-the-art approaches. Journal of Marketing Research, 48(1), 172–184. doi:10.1509/jmkr.48.1.172.
Morwitz, V. G., Steckel, J. H., & Gupta, A. (2007). When do purchase intentions predict sales? International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 347–364. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.015.
Özlük, Ö., Elimam, A. A., & Interaminense, E. (2010). Optimum service capacity and demand management with price incentives. European Journal of Operational Research, 204(2), 316–327. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2009.10.005.
Rajani, R. L., Heggde, G. S., Kumar, R., & Chauhan, P. (2022). Demand management strategies role in sustainability of service industry and impacts performance of company: Using SEM approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 369, 133311. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133311.
Tiberius, V., & Weyland, M. (2024). Enhancing higher entrepreneurship education: Insights from practitioners for curriculum improvement. The International Journal of Management Education, 22(2), 100981. doi:10.1016/j.ijme.2024.100981.
Van Aken, J. E. (2005). Management research as a design science: Articulating the research products of Mode 2 knowledge production in management. British Journal of Management, 16(1), 19–36. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8551.2005.00437.x.
Wertenbroch, K., & Skiera, B. (2002). Measuring consumers’ willingness to pay at the point of purchase. Journal of Marketing Research, 39(2), 228–241. doi:10.1509/jmkr.39.2.228.19086.
Wind, Y. (1978). Issues and advances in segmentation research. Journal of Marketing Research, 15(3), 317–337. doi:10.1177/002224377801500302.
Wirtz, J., & Lovelock, C. (2021). Services marketing: People, technology, strategy (9th ed.). World Scientific. doi:10.1142/y0024.
Wu, Z., Oger, R., Lauras, M., Montreuil, B., Faugère, L., & Libeau, A. (2023). Market potential estimation framework for circular economy. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 56(2), 10333–10338. doi:10.1016/j.ifacol.2023.10.1043.

From Market Research to Demand Estimation: A Calculation Procedure for Market Sizing in Business Plans

Abstract

Downloads

Author Biographies

References